A careful examination of a large number of species in numerous parts of the planet projects that a stunning portion of them will be %26quot;committed to extinction%26quot; in just 50 years, with only modest global warming (Thomas, 2004). %26quot;Committed to extinction%26quot; means that, in the language of poet Pedro Pietri (1968?), %26quot;their names [are] listed in the telephone directory of destruction,%26quot; that is, the book of death. It does not mean that 50 years from now all these %26quot;committed%26quot; species will be gone, but rather that they will no longer have a habitat in which they can survive. The demise of the last members of such species may hang on for some decades, but their ultimate doom is assured.
The findings are the result of a comprehensive examination of more than a thousand terrestrial species -- plants, insects, mammals, birds, frogs and reptiles -- in regions representing about 20% of the Earth%26#039;s surface. The regions studied are located in all continents except Asia, and represent a wide variety of environments: boreal (northern), temperate, and tropical forests, tundra, grasslands, savannah, deserts. The amount of warming that was projected in the study was shockingly small. Three projections were used: 0.8 to 1.7 °C (1.4 to 3.0°F) in the minimal warming case, 1.8 to 2.0°C (3.2 to 3.6°F) with mid-range climate change, over 2.0°C (3.6°F) at maximum (Thomas, 2004; Pounds and Puschendorf, 2004).
But with only this rather minimal amount of warming, and even with an assumed ability to disperse to more favorable environments, 11, 19, and 33 percent of total species (in minimal, mid-range, and maximal cases, respectively) will disappear. Mortality among those species with little or no ability to disperse will be considerably higher (34, 45, and 58 % in the respective no dispersal cases). Moreover, the %26quot;minimal%26quot; case (0.8 to 1.7 °C/1.4 to 3.0°F) represents the minimum expected warming by 2050: as the study%26#039;s authors point out, this means that this level of extinction is inevitable (Thomas, 2004). In 50 years, more than 10% of terrestrial species -- at minimum -- will be on a one-way path to extinction; in 100 years, almost all those species will be gone.
%26quot;Contrary to previous projections,%26quot; the authors note, %26quot;[climate warming] (which they attribute to human activity) is likely to be the greatest threat in many if not most regions.%26quot; The study did not examine the %26quot;historically unprecedented%26quot; carbon dioxide levels with which organisms will have to contend, or interactions between climate change and other ecological threats, which the authors indicate are likely to be even more severe than climate change in isolation (Thomas, 2004). The message of this study is simple: climate change kills -- and kills extraordinary numbers of living things -- even when it is minor.
---
We do know the actual outcome of climate change, since it has happened before:
Permian–Triassic extinction event
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian-Tri...
It was the Earth%26#039;s most severe extinction event, with up to 96 percent of all marine species and 70 percent of terrestrial vertebrate species becoming extinct. Because approximately 25 percent of species survived the event, the recovery of life on earth took significantly longer than after other extinction events. This event has been described as the %26quot;mother of all mass extinctions%26quot;.
Climate Model Links Warmer Temperatures to Permian Extinction
http://www.physorg.com/news6003.html 0% 0 Votes 8% 1 Vote
