Is a global temperature change of 0.6C significant? The global temperature dropped more than 0.6C from Jan 2007 to Jan 2008. See it here:
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/200...

When the skeptics claim that this is a large amount of cooling. the global warming believers say that 0.6C is normal year-to-year variation.

The global temperature changed about 0.6C in the 20th century.

Does a 100 year trend equal to year-to-year variation prove a looming catastrophe?

Is a global temperature change of 0.6C significant?

Additional Details

6 months ago

JK:
I missed the part where you tell me of 0.6C is significant or not.
I understand that the question upsets you. Perhaps you should spend more time understanding why %26quot;your side%26quot; trivializes a 1 year temperature change while insisting that a 100 year %26quot;trend%26quot; is significant.

6 months ago

Ken:

I am not claiming that 0.6C (or any other) is or is not significant, so your examples are lost on me.

If you claim that a global temperature change in the range of 0.6C is in the “noise”, you should also agree that a century long trend of that amount is “in the noise.” That is my point here.

Make a specific complaint about the Anthony Watts article that I referenced, if you have one. I note that the criticism that you link to does not attack the Watts article that I referenced nor its methods.

Finally, a recent question (Where did the heat go?) I asked was about the recent temperature decline. Check out my conclusion: La Nina might be part but not all of it.

6 months ago

Bob:
If you will reread my question, you will see that I make no claim of the end of global warming, nor conspiracy, nor the role of greenhouse gasses - or lack thereof - in anything. I think you did a cut and paste from an answer to an unrelated question. Your answers used to be better targeted, more relevant, and just generally more interesting.
(If you allowed email, I would have sent this to you privately)

Rephrasing my question:
Is it fair to say that 0.6C in one year is %26quot;in the noise%26quot; and also say that a 0.6C trend over 100 years is significant?

discussed in detail, with confirmation, at:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/01/24/g...

There%26#039;s a reason this is not front page news, and it%26#039;s not some paranoid %26quot;conspiracy%26quot;. The Earth has been there, done that, in recent history.

As long as we keep making greenhouse gases in enormous amounts, global warming will dominate in the long run. It%26#039;s simple physics.

http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/earthguide/di... CBC Documentary Doomsday Called Off, very informative.

A 0.6 degree drop in trmperature during one year is not that dangerous. That being said, we are due for a cooling trend as it has been 12000 years since the last recorded ice age. Although this does not seem like a large drop in temperature, it could signify the beginning of a cooling trend, or an increase of efficiency in reducing global warming. If the temperature continues todrop on an annual basis for the next decade, then there is cause for concern.

Look, it%26#039;s not like global warming just concerns day to day weather fluctuations and whether or not you have to wear a tank top earlier in the year. That%26#039;s just simplifying and trivializing an issue, and you should know better, or at least get your facts straight.

Global warming concerns the effects these %26quot;small%26quot; increases in temperature are having the world over.

Here%26#039;s one example and I want you to just hear me out without trying to deny it first chance. Dengue fever is a disease caused by a virus that is spread by mosquitos. It used to only be found in areas with tropical climates, like through Asia and Africa.

A slight increase in temperature worldwide has now allowed these mosquitos to spread further, and live in regions that they previously could not.

Now we are seeing dengue fever in SOUTHERN EUROPE, which had until now been unaffected by these horrible disease.

You know what? I know this won%26#039;t change your mind. You%26#039;re going to keep on denying global warming is happening for as long as you live. You%26#039;ll keep on reading select articles that skew facts, and ignore the huge mass of material and research that points to anything you don%26#039;t want to hear. You%26#039;ll bury your head in the sand and just wait.

Good luck with that.

Baseball analogy.
Bob Smith is a lifetime .250 hitter. On the average he hits 1 for 4. There are days when he hits 0 for 4, and other days he might hit 2 for 4. But overall he goes 1 for 4 for a .250 average.
This is kind of like temperatures - you will expect some years the temperature to be below the average, and other years when the temperature will be above the average, but if everything is equal then the temperature will not rise over a century.

One off season, Bob takes steroids. He still has games where he goes 0 for 4, and still has games where he goes 2 for 4, but now there are more games where he goes 2 for 4. Overall his average on the year goes up from .250 to .275.
With the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, it is like putting the climate on steroids. There were will still be years when the global temp goes down, and years where the global temp goes up - but overall, the temp over a century will rise.

The problem is that the alleged temperature increase over the previous 100 years has been wiped out in 1 year. The baseball analogy is a red-herring at best. A better analogy would be that a batter%26#039;s normal average is .250. The batter goes on a hot streak (no pun intended) and gradually increases his average to .260, .270, .280. He is now a .280 hitter, but he goes 0 for 50 and drops his average back to .250. Sorry to burst the bubble, but no matter what anyone says, he is a .250 hitter and to get back up to .280 or .290, he is going to have go another hot streak, but that ain%26#039;t guaranteed. For all we know, he could go 2 for 30 and drop his average even lower to .240.

The sad fact is that the alarmists are now reduced to holding onto whatever they can to continue to support a theory that is falling apart around them. We are getting closer and closer to reaching the dates where they say specific things are going to happen and those things are not happening.

On top of all of this, what does an increase of .6 or a decrease of .6 really mean? Who has come up with the %26quot;normal%26quot; temperature that we use for the comparison? And how do we know that the %26quot;normal%26quot; temperature is really the %26quot;normal%26quot; temperature? We have around 100 years of somewhat accurate weather data and only a few decades of accurate worldwide temperature data. Variations of a degree or 2 would not be out of the question when considering the sources of temperature readings. How do we know that we aren%26#039;t warming up to the %26quot;normal%26quot; temperature?