Source: Author: Date: Click:
Is the recent warming trend the fastest on record? And if it is, how much greater is it than other warming trends?

For information, the recent warming trend appears to have started about 30 years ago, in 1978 (based on NASA Land-Ocean index data). How much greater is the rate of warming than found in past warming trends?

Quantitative answers only, with supporting data.

Additional Details

7 months ago

Spike, what part of quantitative only do you not understand. Thumbs down to you.

7 months ago

Bob, how can it be the fastest since man came into existence but not the fastest in recorded history. I call BS on your answer.

7 months ago

Ken,

I did the same analysis but didn%26#039;t get the same numbers. Please show the math, that is what quantitative means. Pictures are meaningless.

7 months ago

Dana,
Your numbers do not agree with the temperatures posted by NASA, care to explain? There%26#039;s more to the scientific record than man%26#039;s historical records. The choice of best answer is peculiar to say the least, since it%26#039;s neither quantitative nor supported, cause for other answers to be rejected. It seems %26quot;correct%26quot; means %26quot;agrees with me%26quot;. Report Abuse No Bob, it%26#039;s not peculiar, it%26#039;s predictable. Of course a denier is going to choose Jello%26#039;s answer regardless of its content.

You are right though, in the denier case %26quot;correct%26quot; = %26quot;agrees with me%26quot;.
Report Abuse

Other Answers (4)

  • That%26#039;s difficult to say, because the further back in time you go, the bigger the error bars. Here are a few relevant comparinsons though.

    Over the past 30 years, the planet has warmed about 0.6 deg C (~0.02 deg C per year).

    From 1910-1940 (which was partially caused by greenhouse gases and partially by increased solar output), the planet warmed 0.4 deg C (~0.013 deg C per year).

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/F...

    Coming out of the last ice age, from its coolest point to the current stable temperature range, the planet warmed 8 deg C in 8,000 years (~0.001 deg C per year).

    The previous ice age warmed 10 deg C in 10,000 years (also ~0.001 deg C per year).

    http://www.daviesand.com/Choices/Precaut...

    However, there have been rapid climate changes in the past, generally when various feedbacks combine to make it happen (such as large and rapid ocean carbon releases a.k.a. %26#039;methane farts%26#039;). There have likely been faster warming trends in the past, but not caused by the Sun or Milankovitch cycles alone.

    Edit: FYI, the maximum slope that can be achieved around those 2 periods changes very little by adjusting the starting/ending years. The maximum trend during jello%26#039;s period is achieved using 1907 - 1944 @ 0.117 C/decade. The maximum trend during your period is achieved using 1976 - 2007 @ 0.21 C/decade. So the current warming trend is almost twice the rate we saw in the early 20th century. Source of data:
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabled...

    with references to the scientific literature at the end.

    The line of the graph at the right edge is essentially straight up. Which is why this is true:

    %26quot;We humans have built a remarkable socioeconomic system during perhaps the only time when it could be built, when climate was sufficiently stable to allow us to develop the agricultural infrastructure required to maintain an advanced society.
Slide Show
ADVERTISEMENT