Without using the thought that it was warm last year, so this year should be warmer, show us how you came to your conclusion.
You can also make a guess, but please state that you can%26#039;t tell for sure, and you are only taking a guess.
So I%26#039;d have to conclude that it doesn%26#039;t matter, even for one year or 5 years.
The 125 year record provides us with enough information that the change is occurring, so let%26#039;s stop watching the thermometers waiting for %26quot;ultimate proof%26quot; and get to business reducing carbon emissions.
Quick, in 1988 what did Lindzen and Singer predict global temperatures would do?
I don%26#039;t know what any particular year will do (the black dots that jump around a lot). That%26#039;s just weather, which is hard to predict.
Man%26#039;s huge generation of greenhouse gases makes climate EASY to predict. Like this:
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Ima...
taken from:
Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, C.A. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T.M.L. Wigleym and C. Tebaldi (2004). %26quot;Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate%26quot;. Journal of Climate 17: 3721-3727
Bet you a zillion dollars.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_dec...
The GISSTEMP has problems with urban contamination but still clearly shows the PDO cycles.
1905 Start of Warm phase
1946 Start of Cool phase
1977 Start of Warm phase
Present beginning the next cool phase
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs...
.
.